一個賭博了廿載人的心聲

文章第一句，”萬惡賭為首”。

我已經好幾次嘗試戒賭，但都失敗，並且越賭越大。最後輸到睡也睡不好，心情變壞，癖氣又差，經常發怒，埋怨家人，找妻兒發洩，與父母關係不和，找朋友 怨天怨地，無心工作，經常想把輸掉的追回來。

其實，賭博的禍害自身是看不出來，很多人以為小賭可以娛樂，但卻不知它就是輸到傾家蕩產的禍根，對所有人來說，特別是自制力差的人、意志力低的人、自大的人、吝嗇的人、好勝的人，都是很容易由小賭變成大賭，繼而傾家蕩產的。

再說，並不以為要輸一百萬可以用您兩、三日時間，甚至幾佰萬，可能只需要二、三小時，就可以無理智地全部輸掉。我有一天就是從一、兩仟元玩起，最後不足一日輸掉五十萬，我自己都不相信，好似鬼上身似的越輸越狼，越賭越大。

亦不要以為在賭博過程中可以用理智來停止，當您輸一百，您會用盡所有方法拿賭本追回這一百，結果又告敗北，再嘗試用 盡所有方法得到賭本來追回所輸的，結果一發不可收拾，輸到無法再拿出賭本為止。我不是說笑，我有無數次從賭場的信用卡中心買籌碼，身上的卡用盡的話，問朋 友及家人，籍口急需現金，要求他們從提款機取錢，又或者回家看看有什麼可以變賣，如手錶、金飾、外幣、郵票、電器及車輛等，總之想盡一切辦法，盡快能找到 賭本，追回輸掉的錢。但到了最後，結果永遠都是一樣，輸到甚麼都沒有，輸到自己都無法信自己有那麼多錢輸。

就算好彩可以追回輸掉的錢，除非您到死那天都不再入賭場，那您就可追回上次輸的金錢，這裡說只是追回上次輸的金錢， 以前輸掉的應該是無法可以追回的。若然您繼續入賭場，循環輸完再追的程序，只會越輸越多，越賭越大。我就嘗試連續贏賭場半年，但兩、三日內將贏的及自己有 的都輸掉，信不信由您。

再者，我寧願每次入賭場賭錢都輸，自起碼我會死了心，不會再賭，亦可決心戒賭。可惜每次入賭場時，有一半甚至大半是贏錢出來，這就驅使我以為自己是賭博專家，以為贏多輸少。結果，就算以局數來算，我大部份是贏，但由於下注的金額不同，往往輸的都是大金額，結果又是輸。

好多人就是不能寫出”服輸”兩個字給賭場，如果您可以認輸，那您就唔會輸，如果您硬要寫個”贏”字，那一定輸。這”服輸”兩字真的難寫，但一定要寫，因為唔寫，就可以毀滅您一生。

今天，我再決心戒賭，不知是否可以成功，但我會盡力，提醒自己賭的禍害。賭博不但傷害自己，並且傷害身邊所有人，做 人要負責任，對自己及身邊所有人負責任。我真的希望我可以成功戒賭，不要被可以帶動澳門經濟繁榮的龍頭產業，害自己一生，自身澳門，沒有得到該行業帶來的 益處，反而被它害死，真的不值。

再賭，沒有錢，沒有親情、沒有愛情，沒有友情，什麼都沒有。不再賭，有錢，有親情、有愛情，有友情，什麼都可以有。願每個被賭折磨的人重新做人，時間過去了，金錢失去了，算了吧!

緊記我服輸，我發誓以後不再入賭場。
***
美滿家庭協進會
地址 :和樂大馬路美居廣場第2期第1座4樓
(青洲美居水佬榮旁邊門口入電梯４字,上到去好易揾到架)
TEL : 28388886 FAX : 28329405

澳門社會工作局 - 志毅軒
澳門水坑尾街103號建築置業商會大廈一樓B-D座
網址：www.ias.gov.mo/web2/cvf/cn/
戒賭輔導熱線：28323998 　辦公電話：28323902 　傳真電話：28323928

本澳去年72宗自殺屬高危區

【本報訊】據衛生局綜合醫院精神科數據顯示，本澳去年自殺個案有七十二宗，較世界衛生組織每十萬人十三人自殺的標準超出一點三人，屬高自殺率地區

世衛對地區自殺率的指標為每十萬人少於十三人，而本澳去年自殺率剛剛超出世衛標準，達每十萬人有十四點三人

博彩業僱員四萬五千人

博彩業僱員四萬五千人

與去年同期升百分之五十

在今年第二季末，博彩業的有薪酬僱員共四萬五千零三十三名。自去年下半年多間大型娛樂場相繼開業，令博彩業僱員人數持續增長，與去年同期比較，僱員人數大幅增加百分之五十點一。

按職業分類，直接與博彩投注服務有關的員工，如：兌換、賭場監場、巡場、荷官、現金或電話投注員等達二萬六千七百七十四名，增幅百分之四十八點二；而以賭場侍應生、角子機場服務員、護衛及保安、閉路電視監察員等為主的「服務、銷售及同類工作人員」則增加百分三十點七，共七千八百二十六名。

平均月薪一萬四千五百元

博彩業全職僱員在今年六月的平均薪酬（不包括花紅及獎金）為一萬四千四百九十一元（澳門元，下同），較去年同月上升百分之十四點九。其中直接與博彩投注服務有關的員工的平均薪酬為一萬四千八百九十八元，增幅為百分之十三點五；而服務、銷售及同類工作人員的平均薪酬為七千九百九十七元，增加百分之八點八。

拿BJ的机会

有三个重要数字好易记（大约数）：
先拿一张公，有優勢13%
先拿一张烟，有優勢52%
拿BJ的机会=1/21

割禾青

以-1.1%的负优势来计算，95%的机会发生在红线范围内，
如果赌上1000手，大约34%赢钱，66%输钱。
如果赌上10000手，超过95%都要输钱。
可以看到，输的机会比赢的大，赌得越多输的机会越大。我暂称这个现像做 [越赌越输]。

跟着的问题是，赌时波幅总是上上落落，每次都等到上到有利润时 [割禾青] 不是就可以吗？

我们细心的分析[割禾青]这个方法，会发现它原来其实等于一条直纜（而且比直纜成功机会更少）！！
设定...（为了简化）...平注，优势-2%（49%赢，51%输），有一注利润即停，否则继续。（希望大家明白，这次设定，平注与其它任何注码法结果都是差不多，-2%与-1%只是放大缩小，上幾多停也是一样。）

1...10000人同时去做，第一口，4900人成功回家，5100人输1注，要继续。

2...5100人，需要赢2注才可回家，赢2注和输2注的机会是：48.1%和51.9%。因为不是一口过，所以成功机会降低，即是[越赌越输]现像。另一种看法：在图表上看，在-1注的位置开始，有一些人可以赢回两级去到+1，同等机会亦有更多人（因为负优势）输多两级到-3。...=》2453.1人回家，2646.9人输了3注，要继续。

3...2646.9人，需要赢4注才可回家，赢4注和输4注的机会是：46%和54%。=》1217.6人回家，1429.3人输了7注，要继续。
计到这里，共8570.7人已回家（总共赢8570.7注），1429.3人要继续（总共输10005.1注）（賭場赚了1434.4注）

4...
5...
6...
直至因为某些原因不能继续，追不到也要回家，等于断纜。
大家可以看到，这和赌纜原理一样，但因为[越赌越输]原理，它比简单的直纜更差。
如果这个方法可行，等于赌纜可行。等于人人唔洗做！

自古，我们的直觉对于求生非常重要，但有时亦会变成错觉，賭場游戏的设计，最喜欢玩这个，百家乐的博牌规则，花旗骰，轮盘的数字...目的就是要人感到混乱。我常常听到有人说，大小的大粒六有着数，因为每一范都是1/2机会（1/6+1/6+1/6=3/6=1/2），不用抽水，还有机会中2粒，3粒！究竟是真的有着数，还是有人计错数？
***
割禾青：贏錢走人
割禾青 指贏了錢乘機溜走
禾青者，青禾也。割禾青，意即在禾未熟的時候就收割。
禾苗還未長大便提早收成,喻在賭局中贏了錢卻提早離開
禾成熟時是黃色,當它還是青的時候是不錢的,但有人在它還是青的時候,就割下出售,表示此人貪小便宜.當小利到手時就馬上離開,以確保所得

Wizard of Macau - Blackjack

*** Some mistakes in Lisboa Strategy

Lisboa Strategy
soft 19(4&5 cards) vs 7 = stay
soft 19(4&5 cards) vs 8 = stay
soft 18(3 cards) vs 8 = hit
7,7 vs T = hit
2,2 vs 7 = hit

***

Last update: Sept. 12, 2007

Introduction

To understand the blackjack scene in Macau it is helpful to have an historical background.

Until 2001 Stanley Ho's company SJM held a monopoly on gambling in Macau. When his monopoly expired in 2001 the government initially allowed two more licenses. Each new license holder was to be at least partially owned by a Macau person or company. When one of these partnerships went bad, the gaming authorities in Macau allowed the license to be split into two. When the other two full license holders complained, to be fair, the Macau government allowed each of them a sub-license as well.

So, there are now six owners of gaming licenses in Macau. Each license holder may build as many casinos as he likes, or at least I'm told. In August 2007 I went to Macau to investigate the blackjack rules there. Usually each license holder kept the rules the same within each property and across all its properties, with the Lisboa being an exception. The remainder of this document will explain the blackjack rules for each group, indicate the house edge, and provide the appropriate basic strategy under the given rules.

Lisboa

Although the Lisboa is an SJM property, but the blackjack rules are more liberal than the other SJM properties. Following are the specifics.

• 5 decks.
• Dealer stands on soft 17.
• Player may double only on 11.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose entire bet, including additional wagers for doubling and splitting.
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• The player may choose to win half his bet with any five-card hand, except against a dealer ace, and after splitting.
• A player 7-7-7 in his initial hand will immediately pay 3 to 1. Splitting will void this rule.
• Resplitting aces is allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

Note: After splitting, if the strategy says H3 or H4, then stand.

The house edge under these rules is a scant 0.01%. Following is the basic strategy under these rules.

SJM, except Lisboa

SJM is a Portugese acronym for Sociedade de Jogo de Macau. This translates to Society of Games of Macau. Stanley Ho is a major shareholder of SJM. The majority of casinos in Macau are SJM properties.

The SJM blackjack rules, except at the Lisboa are as follows. The Lisboa is treated separately above.

• 5 decks.
• Dealer stands on soft 17.
• Player may double only on 11.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose entire bet, including additional wagers for doubling and splitting.
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• A player 7-7-7 in his initial hand will immediately pay 3 to 1. Splitting will void this rule.
• Resplitting aces not allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

The house edge under these rules is 0.89%. It is this high mainly due to being allowed to double only on 11. Following is the basic strategy under these rules. Note that the 777 bonus does not change the strategy for splitting sevens.

Wynn

As of the last update the only Wynn property in Macau is the Wynn Macau. I hear of talk of plans to build a second property on the Taipa side.

The Wynn blackjack rules are as follows.

• 4 decks.
• Dealer hits on soft 17.
• Player may double on any first two cards.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose only original wager. Additional wagers made due to double or splitting will be returned.
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• Resplitting aces allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

The house edge under these rules is 0.32%. Following is the basic strategy under these rules.

Sands

As of early August 2007 the only Sands property in Macau is the Sands itself. On August 28 the Sands will open its second property, the Venetian, on the Cotai side.

The Sands blackjack rules are as follows.

• 5 decks.
• Dealer stands on soft 17.
• Player may double on any first two cards.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose entire bet, including additional wagers for doubling and splitting.
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• Resplitting aces not allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

The house edge under these rules is 0.26%. Following is the basic strategy under these rules.

Galaxy

As of August 2007 the Galaxy properties include the StarWorld, President, and Galaxy Waldo. They also have a huge project under construction on the Taipa side, I believe opening in 2008.

The Galaxy blackjack rules are as follows.

• 6 decks.
• Dealer stands on soft 17.
• Player may double on any first two cards.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose only original wager. Additional wagers made due to double or splitting will be returned(double only, all splitting lose on dealer blackjack).
• ***the dealer will not take doubles, but will take splits, against a dealer blackjack
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• Resplitting aces not allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

The house edge under these rules is 0.16%. Following is the basic strategy under these rules.

Criticism: I have an unconfirmed report that at the Galaxy itself (in the Waldo Hotel) the player loses all to a dealer blackjack. The same source said at the other Galaxy properties (StarWorld, President) resplitting aces is allowed, and the dealer will not take doubles, but will take splits, against a dealer blackjack. (Sep 7, 07)

Crown

As of August 2007 the only Crown property was the Crown casino, located in the Hyatt.

The Crown blackjack rules are the same as Galaxy's, as follows.

• 6 decks.
• Dealer stands on soft 17.
• Player may double on any first two cards.
• Dealer does not take a hole card. If dealer has blackjack player will lose only original wager. Additional wagers made due to double or splitting will be returned.
• Double after a split allowed.
• Player may surrender on any initial two cards, except against a dealer ace. This is equivalent to "early surrender" against a 10, because the player may invoke it before the dealer checks for blackjack.
• Resplitting aces not allowed.
• Continuous shuffler.

The house edge under these rules is 0.17%. Following is the basic strategy under these rules.

For more information on blackjack, please visit my companion site, Wizard of Odds.

true count index number